Runs To Rate - Last Reviewed December, 2011
CRITERIA |
RULE |
| RUN TO RATE | A. TRACK - Go back to last run at today's track!!! Even if a poor result, must rate if no excuses. H_up = Up FROM that run. Eg. If last run at track - Up1, today's run is Up2. B. CLASS - If coming back in class, include last run around this class. C. UP - Treat F1 as 1st up when using for last run. D. DISTANCE - Check that it didin't make sharp improvement at this distance last prep. Include if did. If ran at a longer distance last run and hasn't won at that distance or longer, go BACK to last run at today's business. E. JOCKEY - IF HAS RUN POORLY FOR APPRENTICE JOCKEY AND BACK TO SENIOR JOCKEY, RATE THAT RUN. |
| CAN IGNORE | Poor runs at MV, or Flemington straight. Unlucky runs. If so, Up = Up - 1. |
The most important run .... NO FURTHER BACK |
..... is the last CLEAN run, particularly at the ideal distance. But if ran a better race or UP_BONUS would be greater at or around ideal distance before that..... MUST INCLUDE LAST RUN. Eg. if today's distance is 1300, rate first run at 1200. If last run was at a greater distance or even same and GETS BACK, must rate that race. If the horse was unlucky or unsuited, GO BACK. H_Up = H_up - 1 for each of these runs. Than last Freshened, Let_Up and Spell even if unlucky. |
| MOST RECENT RUN | If the last run was at this distance but had excuses and previous run is IDEAL, rate the IDEAL run. If dropping back in distance, go back to last run at track, distance or ideal distance. BUT, include last run if entitled to Leader Bonus. |
| DROPPING BACK IN DISTANCE | Rate the IDEAL run. |
| RUNS TO IGNORE | Can ignore: * WFA runs when coming back to handicap * VHeavy Runs * MV runs * Morphetville Parks runs * Runs where starters < 8. Ignore UNLUCKY runs - if Up 3 and 2nd up run was unlucky, UP = 2. |
| CONDITION | Rate ONLY DEAD or better. No Slow. Must include most recent run nearest today's condition. EXACT condition is important. But TRUST Condition.php - include appropriate runs in wet. |
| DISTANCE | Must include last run at today's distance or within 10% of today's distance, even if on a wet track. Except where horse is coming back in distance and has won at longer. If ran today's distance last start and no excuses, MUST RATE. If run more than one race at previous distance and moving up in distance, INLUDE THE FIRST ONE. Include most recent run at longer distance if raced HANDY. If last run was over longer distance and hasn't won at that distance or today's distance is BEST distance, GO BACK (last run at distance or ideal). Up = Up from that run. Ignore longer runs. MUST include FIRST run at ideal distance if last run was at ideal distance. |
| FRESHENED | Freshened = Up - 1 in count from a spell or let_up. Must include last run at TRACK and last run at DISTANCE and highest quality race run this prep. If didn't go UP in distance, UP = UP - 1 BUT still F2 if freshened last run. Freshened and freshened again = F2. Last run = Up 1. Freshened APPLIES to 2nd up runs too. 1300 back to 1200 is NOT freshened. |
| LETUP | Letup3 oveerrides F1. |
| UNLUCKY | Include last run NO unlucky. |
| IDEAL DISTANCE | If stepping up in distance, MUST include the 1st run at ideal. |
| JOCKEY | Include last run with today's jockey. And PRFER it if within last two runs. |
| TRACK | Must include last run at today's track - but DON'T go back more than 3 runs. And if has run a better race since last run at track, MUST include. But NOT Randwick Kensington. Rosehill form is much different to Randwick form. |
| HOW FAR BACK | Not beyond this campaign - or last freshened - or last let_up. |
| UP | Select race to race from criteria above. Whatever race is chosen, UP = from that race. If Up = 3 rate, BEST of 1st and 2nd up runs. If freshened and did't go UP in distance, UP = UP - 1. If since run another race than cannot be rated vbecause of condition or unlucky, ADD ONE to H_UP from the rated race. MUST RATE FIRST RUN AT IDEAL DISTANCE. UP = UP from that point. Eg. If Up = 4 at 1400 and last two runs were at 1200, include the 2nd up run and now Up = 3. L_UP = L_R_UP. |
| 1st Up - Check Trials | MUST rate last 1st up run + highest rated race last prep. If can discard 1st up run last preparation, 2nd up run is 1st up run. Include all Let_Up runs. |
| LET_UP - Check Trials | Let_up = Up 1 when counting from and when drop back in distance was GREATER THAN 1.25. Let_Up after 1st up run APPLIES. Up = Up - 1 ...... BUT, Let_Up1 and Let_Up2 take precedence over Up. Let_up 4 = R_UP + 1. |
RUNS TO DISCARD (including UNLUCKY)
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Can ignore CUSHION TRACK RUNS. Same MV. Can ignore Flemington 1200. Can ignore runs from WIDE barriers at ALL COURSES - ESPECIALLY tight courses like Caulfield and Doomben. CAN IGNORE POOR RUNS ON HEAVY TRACKS. Can ignore runs from WIDE barriers. And, can ignore unlucky runs. Go back to highest rated RECENT RACE around distance. |
| LAST PREP | I rating a race from last preparation, MUST mark Last_Prep = 1. |
| 1ST UP | If no 1st up run available, do closest to distance and assign UP as L_R_UP . Do highest rated race last preparation. Can consider Let_Up after third run last preparation to be 1st Up last preparation. |
| TRAINING | If training well, include best run at this distance. If mentioned in Sportsman trackwork report, give a training bonus AND go back to last run at this T/D - even if been Freshened since. Include training in ALL conditions. |
| GOING (change of state) - Applies Brisbane / Sydney | EVEN if ran this state in previous preparations - also applies if last run can be discounted - or if RATED RUN is the first IN THIS STATE. Must include best recent in home state. No going penalty if rating home run and has had one run this way of going. Include if since freshened. NOTE: Perth races the same way as Melbourne. |
